原标题：台民调乱象丛生尽显政治算计参考消息网9月13日报道香港《亚洲周刊》9月12日一期发表报道称，台湾岛内参选人在选举季各出奇招，其中民调被认为是重要武器之一，很多人将它加以“修正”，以挫对手锐气。

B |     Raaj Kamal Films International marked Rajinikanth’s fifty years in cinema and his seventy-fifth birthday with a heartfelt video tribute that revisits one of Tamil cinema’s most enduring creative partnerships. Shared on the production house’s official social media handles, the video stands as a warm salute from Kamal Haasan and his banner to a fellow icon who has walked alongside him through five decades of cinema.Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth share a rare bond shaped by time, trust, and mutual respect. They have appeared together in eighteen films, a collaboration that began with Apoorva Ragangal in 1975, which also marked Rajinikanth’s debut as an actor. Over the years, their journeys diverged in style and persona, yet remained deeply intertwined within the history of Tamil cinema.          .@RKFI extends heartfelt birthday wishes to @rajinikanth.His friendship with @ikamalhaasan remains one of themost treasured bonds in Indian cinema.#Rajinikanth #KamalHaasan#HappyBirthdayRajinikanth #HappyBirthdayThalaivar @turmericmediaTM @magizhmandram pic.twitter.com/weGvadDQGB     — Raaj Kamal Films International (@RKFI) December 12, 2025               A tribute rooted in shared memoriesThe video opens with a still from Ninaithale Inikkum released in 1979, featuring both Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth. The image itself carries recent significance as it was earlier shared in August ahead of the release of Coolie, instantly sparking nostalgia among fans. From there, the tribute travels back to some of the most formative years of their careers.Several moments from films shaped by legendary filmmaker K Balachandar form the emotional spine of the video. Scenes and stills from Apoorva Ragangal, Moondru Mudichu, and Avargal are featured prominently, reminding viewers of a time when both actors were evolving performers finding their voices under the guidance of a master storyteller. These films remain cornerstones of Tamil cinema, not only for their craft but for the raw energy of two future legends sharing the frame.The video also briefly recreates a moment from Bharathiraja’s 16 Vayathinile through AI generated visuals. The choice adds a modern touch to the tribute while paying homage to a film that redefined realism in Tamil cinema and played a key role in shaping Rajinikanth’s early image as an unconventional performer.          Beyond films and into cultural legacyBeyond film clips, the tribute extends into moments captured at public events and celebrations that have become part of Tamil popular culture. Footage from milestones such as Kamal 50 and appearances at the Vikatan Awards highlight the camaraderie between the two stars off screen. These glimpses reflect a relationship that has endured competition, changing eras, and individual superstardom without losing its warmth.Ahead of the video release, Kamal Haasan also took to social media to wish Rajinikanth on his birthday. His message was simple yet deeply personal, acknowledging both the passage of time and the scale of Rajinikanth’s contribution to cinema. He wrote that it marked seventy five years of a remarkable life and fifty years of legendary cinema, signing off with a birthday wish to his friend.The tribute from Raaj Kamal Films is less about spectacle and more about shared history. It reminds audiences that before the myths, the mass moments, and the towering fan followings, Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth were contemporaries growing together within the same cinematic ecosystem. In celebrating Rajinikanth, the video also quietly celebrates an era of Tamil cinema that shaped generations of storytellers and viewers alike.Also Read: Tamil Cinema Bids Farewell to AVM Saravanan, A Producer Who Shaped Generations。在台湾，民调已经“变调”，不再是单纯探询民意，很多时候成为竞选文宣，最近就发生这样的案例。报道称，针对台北市长选举，近日有两家民调公司的民调结果落差很大，引发议论。最新TVBS民调显示，国民党参选人蒋万安目前民调第一，领先无党籍参选的台北市前副市长黄珊珊，民进党参选人陈时中居第三；但另一家《放言》民调则显示，陈时中目前拿下第一，其次为蒋万安、黄珊珊。

C | 两份民调最大差异在于蒋万安的支持度相差了近10个百分点，陈时中与黄珊珊的差异不大。

D | 所以究竟要如何评判哪份民调较准确呢？TVBS是老字号的民调先驱，固定在选举期间发布民调，被认为信用可靠。《放言》则是由亲绿的资深媒体人周玉蔻创办，委托山水民调公司进行该次民调，山水亦是家老牌民调公司，但曾被指“有民进党的影子”。“基本上，民调已经变成文宣的一部分，”台北市长柯文哲说，“你想要看什么样的民调，都可以做给你看。”言下之意是大家不用太认真看待。台湾联合新闻网9月12日的报道也关注了岛内民调乱带风向的问题。

E | 报道说，台湾地区年底地方选举进入民调、网络声量作战阶段，但既有民调公司替特定参选人量身打造调查方式，也有通过网络让支持者灌票方便带风向，更有人月烧百万新台币（1元新台币约合0.22元人民币——本网注）请网军攻击对手。

F | “选举资讯战”打得火热，选民却看得半信半疑。学者提醒，未符合统计学基本要件的民调都充满政治算计。

G | 民调业者透露，有些民调公司会推出类似“假民调”，甚至有“包你赢”民调，从问题设计到调查方法，故意有利于特定参选人。另外，新闻或门户网站推出的网络民调很流行，但也最具争议，因为容易出现支持者重复投票的灌票现象，许多民调结果会与民众想象差异极大，有带风向的特定目的。报道称，针对民调怪象丛生，台湾艺术大学广电系教授赖祥蔚说，民调常被当成选举工具，最早是在问卷题目或样本上动手脚，使用引导式题目或抽调样本以获得想要的结果，更夸张的是没实际做民调就报数据。台大政治学系教授王业立认为，网络投票参考就好，这种调查基本上未符合统计学基本要件，但因结果可能对于中间选民起带风向作用、让民调落后者被弃保（指某政党或参选人因担忧同类型的参选人瓜分选票，就会喊出“弃保”的口号，希望选民将选票集中在有机会胜出的参选人身上——本网注），算是种政治算计。

H | 报道说，坊间民调依调查题数与样本数要价约12万到50万，除一般民调公司，市场调查中心、学术机构和新闻网站也抢食民调大饼，出现许多怪象。台湾联合新闻网9月12日的另一篇文章也说，一场地方选举，全台花费超过百亿。选战本来就存在严重的“贫富差距”现象，如今还有参选人为了带风向、操作弃保，花钱通过民调公司做手脚，以引导式题目、拿掉不利样本等方式进行假民调，企图欺骗选民、赢得胜选，更令人难以接受。文章说，部分有钱的参选人光操弄民调还不够，竟还聘请网军，通过散布对手负面信息的手法来洗白自己声量。文章称，这种用金钱堆砌起来的选举现象，成功帮许多参选人调整“人设”、让相关业者赚得盆满钵满也就算了，更严重的是选民也被蒙在鼓里，这早已脱离选举本质，只会让有资源的参选人越来越极端，“选战资讯战”也会让台湾选举更混乱。返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：